Essays in Idleness

One of the men who went on to found Intel predicted in 1965 that the number of transistors on a microchip would double every year or two, leading to the continuous, exponential growth in computer power, and a splendid future for the semiconductor industry.

This was not a law of physics, but a fond business projection. Yet, in defiance of physical limitations, the prediction has been sustained into this age of three-dimensional chip stacking, and other neat tricks. Moreover, according to George Gilder’s Law, the total bandwidth of communication systems triples every twelve months; and to Robert Metcalf’s Law, the value of a network increases as the square of the number of its users, every eighteen months. Indeed, by consulting the Internet, it may now be possible to make one’s head explode.

There is a similar growth in scientific papers. According to a study in the Proceedings of the (U.S.) National Academy of Sciences, the number of fake scientific papers published in arguably real official publications has doubled every eighteen months since 2016. This is a conservative estimate, apparently: the actual number may be much higher. Also, the proportion of submitted papers that conceal dishonesty may be increasing at a rate that is faster.

The claim that one is “following the science” is thus quite compatible with the fact that one is lying, and engaged in gratuitous deceit and fraud.